The ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, has caused extensive human, social, and economic impacts, affecting both the state and its citizens. Alongside human rights violations and displacement of over one million people, the conflict strains Mozambique’s fiscal resources significantly. This study quantifies the conflict’s fiscal impact, emphasizing its toll on the national budget. Through structural-break analysis, this study identifies a surge in national security expenditures, totaling an estimated 106.8 billion MZN (1.69 billion USD) from 2018 to 2022. A disaggregated view reveals particularly high increments in defence (43.6 billion MZN) and in security and public order (60.4 billion MZN) expenditures.
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